PEMEX has reportedly halted or reviewed planned crude oil shipments to Cuba, a move that underscores mounting geopolitical pressures and realigns Mexico’s energy diplomacy amid heightened tensions with the United States. The development comes against a backdrop of shifting regional oil flows, changes in Venezuela’s government and oil output, and sensitive negotiations over USMCA.
Mexico has provided crude and refined products to Cuba through its subsidiary Gasoline for Well-Being, a PEMEX-controlled entity established to manage energy cooperation with the Caribbean nation. Although President Claudia Sheinbaum has publicly defended these shipments as part of “historic cooperation” and humanitarian aid, recent reports indicate that Mexico has reconsidered or suspended at least one planned export in January 2026 amid concerns over possible retaliation from the US government under President Donald Trump.
According to external reporting from Reuters and Bloomberg, a tanker’s scheduled loading for Cuba was removed from PEMEX’s schedule this month, and Mexican authorities are said to be reviewing their commitment to oil deliveries as part of broader diplomatic caution. Sheinbaum did not explicitly confirm the suspension but stressed that decisions on oil exports are sovereign and based on contractual terms or humanitarian criteria, indicating flexibility in how Mexico manages these shipments.
The issue has become politically sensitive because of pressure from the US government, which has openly criticized Mexico’s role in supplying oil to Cuba. US Republican lawmakers have warned that continuing shipments could influence negotiations over the USMCA and other bilateral security priorities, including counter-narco efforts. Some US political figures have even called for Mexico to cease support for the Cuban government as part of future trade discussions.
Cuba’s Energy Crisis and Mexico’s Role
Mexico’s oil exports to Cuba gained prominence following a sharp decline in Venezuelan deliveries, once the Caribbean island’s principal source of crude. US actions, including an offshore blockade of Venezuelan oil exports after the capture of President Nicolás Maduro by US forces in early January 2026, abruptly disrupted Caracas’s shipments. As a result, Mexico emerged as a vital supplier of petroleum to Cuba in 2025, both to meet humanitarian needs and to avert deeper energy shortages on the island.
In 2025, Mexico exported an estimated 17.2Mb/d of crude oil and roughly 2Mb/d of refined products to Cuba, representing about 3.3% of PEMEX’s total crude exports. Despite representing a modest share of Mexico’s total exports, such deliveries have carried greater symbolic weight due to the US embargo against Cuba and the shifting dynamics in the region.
Cuba’s energy system has faced persistent challenges for years, with frequent blackouts and insufficient domestic production. Heavy reliance on imported fuel, primarily oil-based, means that any interruption in supply can have severe economic and social consequences. Estimates suggest that imports account for more than 80% of Cuba’s energy needs, accentuating the importance of external suppliers like Mexico.
US Influence and the Shadow of Trump’s “America First” Doctrine
Mexico’s internal deliberations over Cuba shipments cannot be separated from broader US energy and geopolitical strategy. Since returning to the presidency, Donald Trump has pushed a forceful “America First” doctrine that prioritizes direct control over strategic energy resources and regional dominance, particularly in the context of Venezuela and Cuba. This approach has included blocking Venezuelan oil exports and advocating for US influence over regional energy flows. Analysts argue this strategy reflects a shift toward a transactional and security-driven energy policy, where access and alignment take precedence over multilateral norms or regional cooperation.
Pressure from Washington has manifested in public criticism of Mexico’s oil deliveries to Cuba, statements by Republican lawmakers linking these shipments to the USMCA review, and broader US threats to use trade and diplomatic levers to influence Mexican policy. While Washington has not yet imposed formal sanctions on Mexico, the mere prospect of US reprisal has heightened diplomatic sensitivity in Mexico City.
For the Mexican government, supporting Cuba through oil shipments has long been framed as a sovereign decision rooted in historical ties and humanitarian intent, rather than as a challenge to US policy. President Sheinbaum and her administration emphasize that energy cooperation with Cuba is carried out under legal frameworks and contractual arrangements, defending it as part of Mexico’s independent foreign policy tradition.
However, critics, including some US officials and foreign policy commentators, suggest that the continuation of these oil exports puts Mexico at odds with its most important economic and security partner. They argue that such decisions could complicate cooperation on trade, migration, and counter-narcotics, particularly as 2026 negotiations around the USMCA approach.
Strategic Implications for Mexico’s Energy Sector
From an industry perspective, the debate over oil shipments to Cuba highlights Mexico’s broader challenges in balancing energy diplomacy, economic priorities and its own production realities. PEMEX’s crude production has struggled in recent years, with output hovering near multi-decade lows, while the company faces significant debt pressures and rising domestic energy demand. Mexico’s export decisions are therefore not just geopolitical but tied to the economics of a state-owned company seeking to stabilize production and finances.
Moreover, the symbolism of Mexico becoming a primary supplier of oil to a sanctioned and economically struggling nation like Cuba, especially as Venezuelan flows decline, amplifies scrutiny from global markets and foreign investors. At the same time, stopping or scaling back these shipments could have humanitarian consequences for Cuba and may strain long-standing diplomatic ties between the two nations.
Analysts stress that Mexico’s policy reflects a complex interplay between humanitarian concerns and geopolitical pressures. With Cuba facing recurrent energy shortages, even modest shipments can help prevent deeper crises. Yet, in the context of US foreign policy priorities and regional power dynamics, those same shipments become politically contentious.
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