Air travel in the United States will not immediately return to normal after the federal government reopens, as flight disruptions are expected to linger in the coming days, according to aviation experts.
President Donald Trump signed the funding bill on Wednesday night, ending the nation’s longest-ever government shutdown. The shutdown had strained air travel, leading to tens of thousands of flight cancellations and delays, and reduced flight schedules.
Some 13,000 air traffic controllers were forced to work without pay for more than a month, overstretching already overworked and understaffed air traffic controllers. Federal authorities reported an uptick in air traffic controller absences, with many calling out due to stress and financial pressure, since the shutdown started on Oct. 1.
Aviation experts have warned that flight disruptions will persist after the shutdown officially ends as the Federal Aviation Administration contends with widespread staffing shortages and evaluates whether air traffic can return to normal.
“There’s going to be extensive disruption across the entire nation’s air transportation system,” Henry Harteveldt, an airline industry analyst and president of Atmosphere Research Group, an independent travel analytics firm, previously told USA TODAY.
Flight cuts at 40 of the country’s busiest airports, which were ordered by the FAA last week, were originally slated to increase to 8% on Thursday and 10% on Friday. But the agency announced Wednesday that reductions will remain at 6% after air traffic control absences drastically declined ahead of the end of the shutdown.
“If the FAA safety team determines the trend lines are moving in the right direction, we’ll put forward a path to resume normal operation,” Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said in a statement Wednesday.
As of Thursday morning, nearly 1,000 flights into, within and out of the U.S. were canceled, according to FlightAware, a flight tracking website. More than 450 flights at airports nationwide were delayed, with most disruptions being reported at Chicago O’Hare International Airport.
Experts previously told USA TODAY that it will take some time before the aviation system can rebound.
Ahmed Abdelghany, associate dean for research at the David B. O’Maley College of Business at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, said the pace of recovery for flights is “likely to vary across airports and carriers, often unfolding on a case-by-case basis over several days following the formal resolution.”
When flights are canceled, it’s not just one plane or route affected. Abdelghany noted that airlines have to assess the “flow of aircraft and crew when they cancel flights.”
The FAA is also still facing an air traffic controller shortage, which was only exacerbated by the shutdown. Prior to the shutdown, controllers were already consistently working six days a week, up to 10 hours a day on mandatory overtime, with vacations strictly limited.
While the FAA has been hiring and training new controllers, Robert Mann, a former airline executive and current president of independent airline consultancy R. W. Mann and Co., noted that it’s a time-consuming process with a high attrition rate and a lot of stress.
“Are we assuming that every single air-traffic controller hasn’t picked up a second job and is just going to come back ready to work 60- or 80-hour weeks? Probably not,” said Tiffany Funk, co-founder and president of point.me, which specializes in points-based travel.
Flight disruptions began to improve on Wednesday with over 900 cancellations compared to 1,264 on Tuesday, 2,422 on Monday and 2,954 on Sunday, according to FlightAware, a flight tracking website. Air traffic control absences accounted for just 1% of delays on Tuesday, compared with 5% on average before the shutdown, the FAA said.
Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian told CNBC he thinks the aviation system will be largely back to normal this weekend, but said the recent cancellations will cost the airlines a significant amount. “By the weekend, I think things should be in good shape,” Bastian said.
Following the funding bill’s passage Wednesday, Delta Air Lines said it was looking forward to bringing operations “back to full capacity over the next few days.”
“We are extremely grateful to all the federal workers including air traffic controllers and officers with the Transportation Security Administration and Customs and Border Protection who worked without a paycheck for more than 40 days to keep our skies safe and secure – and to Delta people who went above and beyond to take care of our customers and government workers during the longest government shutdown in U.S. history,” the airline said in a statement.
The Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation’s Subcommittee on Aviation, Space, and Innovation will hold a hearing on Nov. 19 to examine the impact of the government shutdown on aviation safety.
The hearing will include testimony from National Air Traffic Controllers Association President Nick Daniels and Chris Sununu, the head of Airlines for America, the trade group representing major air carriers, the committee said in a news release.
“The government shutdown has severely impacted our already fragile aviation industry, and recovering from its effects will take time,” Sen. Jerry Moran, who chairs the aviation subcommittee, said in a statement. “As we work to reopen the government, it’s critical that we address the damage done and look at the long-term effects of the shutdown.”
Contributing: Trevor Hughes and Zach Wichter, USA TODAY; Reuters