Mexican tomato exports to Canada surged in 2025 as producers and exporters redirected shipments following the antidumping tariff imposed by the United States in July, turning Canada into a key alternative market amid rising trade pressure on their main destination. According to data from Banxico and the Ministry of Economy (SE), Mexican exports of fresh or chilled tomatoes to Canada totaled US$8.1 million between January and November 2025, a 134% increase compared with the same period in 2024.
The rebound contrasts with 2024, when Mexican tomatoes lost ground in the Canadian market. That year, exports reached US$4.1 million, a 24.5% decline from 2023. While Canada still accounts for a small share of Mexico’s tomato trade, its importance has grown. In the first 10 months of 2025, Canada represented 0.34% of Mexico’s total tomato exports, up from 0.11% a year earlier. Over the same period, the United States’ share fell by 8%.
The timing of the increase is notable, as 74% of those exports were concentrated between August and November, after the US antidumping tariff took effect, signaling a rapid adjustment in commercial strategy.
On July 14, 2025, the US Department of Commerce withdrew from the Tomato Suspension Agreement, imposing an antidumping tariff ranging from 17% to 21% on fresh Mexican tomato exports. The measure came after years of pressure from Florida tomato producers and had an immediate impact on shipments, reference prices and planting plans.
Total Mexican tomato exports to the United States fell by about 16% between January and November 2025 compared with the same period in 2024. The sector responded by setting minimum export prices for different tomato varieties, aiming to protect producers and stabilize the market.
Tomatoes are a central pillar of Mexico’s agri-export sector, generating thousands of direct and indirect jobs and contributing about US$3 billion in annual export revenue. Roughly 99.7% of Mexican tomato exports, an industry exceeding US$2.8 billion a year, traditionally go to the United States, a concentration that has heightened vulnerability to policy shifts.
“This concentration almost entirely in one market, while it made us leaders there, now makes us extraordinarily fragile, subjecting the fate of thousands of producers and jobs to the political swings of our northern neighbor,” said José Gerardo Tajonar, President, National Association of Importers and Exporters of the Mexico (ANIERM).
Tajonar said the US tariff directly affects producers in Sinaloa, Sonora and Baja California and makes market diversification an imperative rather than an option. “This is where diversification stops being an option and becomes a strategic imperative, and Canada emerges as the most logical alternative,” he said.
Canada consumes about 780,000t of tomatoes annually and offers tariff-free access to Mexican products under the USMCA. Despite that, Mexico supplies only about 0.3% of the Canadian market, according to industry estimates, underscoring significant room for growth.
SaveFruit Corp, an agricultural solutions company, has identified Canada as a clear diversification opportunity. The company notes that while the sector faces lower production, added costs from tariffs and less predictable international demand, expansion into markets such as Canada or Asia, combined with investments in agricultural innovation and post-harvest solutions, could strengthen industry resilience over the medium term.
Logistics have historically limited that expansion. Transporting a perishable product across North America posed challenges in cost, time and border friction. Tajonar said that has begun to change with the consolidation of a rail network offering, for the first time, a single, direct rail line linking Mexico, the United States and Canada.
“This steel backbone, which directly connects Mexico’s production zones with Canada’s consumption centers, offers intermodal transport services with refrigerated railcars capable of moving large volumes more efficiently, economically and with greater certainty than ever before,” he said.
Tajonar added that infrastructure was the missing piece to make diversification viable and profitable. He called for a coordinated national strategy, with the ministries of Economy and Agriculture leading trade missions to connect exporters with major Canadian retailers, and for producers to forge direct partnerships with rail operators to develop refrigerated hubs and negotiate volume-based rates.
Leveraging USMCA’s preferential access and the new rail corridor, Tajonar said, “is not a betrayal of the US market, but an act of economic sovereignty and basic business prudence.”
© 2025 Mexicobusiness.News. A Mexico Business Company. All Rights Reserved.