The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (SADER) reported a 57% reduction in active cases of the new world screwworm (NWS), a decline primarily driven by the timely application of sanitary protocols and favorable climate conditions. While climate conditions have reduced the pest activity, experts recommend the implementation of strict protocols to address sanitary disruptions less reactively and more planned.
MSD Salud Animal says that, while lower temperatures and reduced rainfall have temporarily suppressed the parasite’s activity, it does not mean the eradication of the pest in Mexico. Leonardo Burcius, Director General, MSD Salud Animal in Mexico, emphasizes that biosecurity must be viewed as a continuous effort rather than a reactionary measure, particularly as the industry anticipates the return of the rainy season. “Lowering our guard can lead to a resurgence. Vigilance must remain strong and at the same intensity, supported by veterinary tools with proven efficacy, to move toward a sustained reduction of the screwworm and strengthen the country’s livestock health,” stressed Julio Prates, Director of the Livestock Unit, MSD Salud Animal.
Effective management requires the immediate treatment of wounds and the protection of sensitive areas such as the navels of newborn calves, which serve as primary entry points for larvae. By integrating long-acting systemic treatments and maintaining permanent field surveillance, the sector can better position itself to reduce losses and strengthen national animal health. This ongoing commitment remains essential for safeguarding the stability of the Mexican livestock sector and moving toward a sustained reduction of the NWS’ impact on national productivity.
Economic Impact and Market Recovery
The suspension of live cattle exports has resulted in significant financial losses, with Mexican producers losing US$503 million in 2025 and an estimated US$772 million in 2026. Market projections indicate that it will take approximately 3.5 years to absorb the surplus of calves and heifers caused by the border closure and 4 years for the market to rebalance the excess of carcass meat. Additionally, price recovery for cattle is expected to take 3.2 years to return to early 2025 levels, reports Forbes.
The National Confederation of Livestock Organizations (CNOG) has responded by requesting a suspension of live cattle imports from other countries while the US border remains closed to Mexico. Livestock producers have also advocated for a temporary trade agreement involving fair prices between domestic feedlots and exporters, alongside long-term investments in marketing infrastructure such as collection centers and auction houses. If the border were to remain closed for 10 years, the total economic effect could escalate to approximately US$7.319 billion
In November 2025, President Claudia Sheinbaum met with US Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins at Palacio Nacional to discuss the current status of the border closure and the criteria for resuming live cattle trade. Before this meeting, Mexico’s Minister of Agriculture, Julio Berdegué, and Secretary Rollins reviewed progress in the binational campaign against the screwworm, with Rollins noting the achievements made through cooperation between their respective sanitary agencies. While the US government remains cautious about a definitive timeline for reopening, Rollins indicated that the deployment of all available tools in the toolkit brings the possibility of resuming trade closer, as reported by MBN.
The discussions identified short-term priorities, including enhanced coordination on eradication efforts and the strengthening of animal health cooperation as part of the upcoming USMCA trade agreement review. During the diplomatic visit, the US delegation reviewed the operations of the Emergency Operations Center (COES), where SENASICA Director Javier Calderón explained the role of sanitary intelligence in modeling data to anticipate and mitigate biological risks.
Furthermore, the National Agricultural Council (CNA) has emphasized the shared responsibility between the public and private sectors to prevent losses through technology-driven surveillance systems and national sanitary drills. This binational technical collaboration with APHIS-USDA is aimed at establishing the trust and certainty required for North American agri-food integration.
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