China, Geopolitics
Experts remain uncertain about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2026, suggesting ongoing coercion is more likely than full-scale military action during this period.
By Anthony Marcus for Eurasia Business News, February 13, 2026. Article n°2026
No government, intelligence agency, or analyst can say with confidence today whether China will invade Taiwan by the end of 2026, and any specific prediction is speculative. The balance of expert opinion is that the risk of conflict is real and rising over the medium term, but a full-scale invasion before the end of 2026 is still generally viewed as less likely than continued coercion, gray-zone pressure, and military posturing.
Defense and risk consultancies that model a Taiwan conflict tend to assign a material but not greater‑than‑50% probability to a full-scale invasion in coming years, emphasizing that blockade or limited military moves are more likely than an all-out landing operation.
Many analysts highlight that China’s military is improving rapidly and could have the capability for a large-scale operation this decade, but capability does not automatically translate into a decision to attack, especially given the enormous economic and geopolitical costs.
However, China’s leadership continues to insist on “reunification” and does not rule out using force to bring Taiwan under its control. Beijing is increasing military exercises, patrols, and other pressure tactics around Taiwan, and Chinese officials recently reaffirmed support for “reunification forces.”
Some military and policy analyses treat the mid‑2020s to late‑2020s (for example, 2025–2027) as a period of elevated risk because of China’s military modernization milestones and internal political timelines, but these are windows of concern, not fixed plans.
Wargames that use 2026 as a scenario year do so to explore what could happen if an invasion were attempted, not because they have evidence one will occur in that specific year.
However, leaked classified documents reveal that Russia, under President Vladimir Putin, would help China prepare for a potential invasion of Taiwan by 2027 using Russian advanced airborne assault technology.
A cross‑strait amphibious invasion would be one of the most complex operations possible in modern warfare and would likely entail very high casualties, large economic sanctions, and potential intervention by the United States and others.
If Russia can help China in providing military technology and armoured vehicles for invasion of the island, Beijing also depends heavily on global trade and advanced technology, so leaders must weigh the risk that an attack on Taiwan could trigger long‑term economic damage and strategic isolation.
It is not possible to state that China “will” or “will not” invade Taiwan by the end of 2026; at best, one can say that expert assessments currently see a non‑zero but less‑than‑even chance of a full‑scale invasion in that timeframe, with ongoing pressure, coercive exercises, or a blockade seen as more probable forms of escalation.
Any claim that confidently asserts an invasion will happen (or is impossible) by a specific date goes beyond what available evidence and professional analyses support.
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© Copyright 2025 – Eurasia Business News. Article no. 2026
Founded in 2017, Eurasia Business News is an independent platform where are published articles on economy, finance, geopolitics, tax and legal issues in Europe, America and Asia. Our goal is to bring new and valuable insights to business leaders, policymakers, scholars and citizens. Articles are published in both English and French. Premium content is available for monthly subscribers. View all posts by Eurasia Business News
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