The Motley Fool offers a range of services designed to help you achieve your financial goals. Click here to learn more about our membership options.
Access all of your premium services in our Premium Dashboard.
TO MAKE THE WORLD
SMARTER, HAPPIER, AND RICHER.
Founded in 1993 by brothers Tom and David Gardner, The Motley Fool helps millions of people attain financial freedom through our website, podcasts, books, newspaper column, radio show, and premium investing services.
You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More
An expert at Zaner Precious Metals says this week’s volatility in the gold price is here to stay.
You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More
So, the short answer to the question of how the Iran war is affecting the gold price is: volatility.
Since the war in Iran began last weekend, the gold price has traded in a wide range between about US$5,000 and $5,400 per ounce.
Over the past two years, gold has benefited from a structural change in central banks diversifying their reserves away from the US dollar.
The gold price has also risen due to safe-haven demand amid US tariffs that have destabilised global trade and geopolitical uncertainty.
With a new war upon us, gold’s safe-haven appeal is obviously enhanced.
However, the war is likely to have far-reaching economic effects that will impact interest rates, with a flow-on effect to the gold price.
The key concern is that higher oil and gas prices will inevitably lead to higher inflation.
Image source: Getty Images
So far, the war has pushed oil prices up 17%. Natural gas prices in the UK, Europe, and Germany have also skyrocketed 35% to 60%.
These price spikes are a big problem because every national economy on Earth runs on energy. Without it, industry shuts down.
Oil and gas supply shocks mean businesses running machines to make products, or those transporting products, face higher costs.
This will inevitably flow through to prices — not just at the petrol bowser, but also on supermarket shelves and everywhere else.
This will stoke inflation, and right now, that will mean higher interest rates in Australia and delayed rate cuts in the US.
Neither is helpful for gold.
Interest rates impact the gold price because gold bars yield nothing, but simple cash savings accounts and government bonds do.
When rates fall, gold looks more appealing. Expectations of imminent cuts in the US have been supporting gold in the new year.
Today, analysts at Trading Economics said:
Higher oil and gas prices have revived inflation concerns, prompting traders to delay expectations for easing by the Federal Reserve, with a first cut now seen in September and two reductions still priced in for 2026.
Peter A. Grant, Vice President and Senior Metals Strategist at Zaner Precious Metals, said the gold price has been volatile all week.
In a blog, Grant commented:
Initial gains on Monday saw five-week highs above $5,400.
However, selling interest emerged on Tuesday as rising concerns about oil prices – and broad inflation – weighed on Fed easing expectations.
The dollar followed yields higher and gold ended the day down more than 4%.
The gold price closed at US$5,390.45 on Monday, US$5,267.60 on Tuesday, and US$5,131.09 on Wednesday.
So far this week, Grant said tests below the 20-day moving average of US$5,068.27 per ounce for the gold price could not be sustained.
Today, the gold price is US$5,182 per ounce, up 0.9% today, down 0.2% over the week, and up 20% in the year to date (YTD).
For now, Grant said the US$5,000 per ounce ‘support zone’ for the gold price is still in play.
A modestly more favorable tone is evident midweek as the trade assesses the most recent war developments and the yellow metal is consolidating in the lower half of this week’s more than $400 range.
Grant said the underlying fundamentals for gold remain supportive, but there will be more volatility ahead as the war continues.
Bulls will be quick to take profits on rallies, and look for limited risk opportunities to buy on dips.
I’m not catching any longer-term bearish vibes out there, but sellers will absolutely step in when the right opportunity presents itself.
The gold price reached a record high of US$5,595.02 per ounce in January before an end-of-month rout.
The rout was triggered by the US President’s Fed Chair pick, which inspired investors to take profits on gold after a 65% rise in 2025.
Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.
| Bronwyn Allen
ASX gold shares soared before a commodities sell-off and a new war sent them into the red.
Read more »
| Aaron Teboneras
ASX gold stocks move higher as bullion recovers to US$4,575 an ounce.
Read more »
| Cameron England
There’s a lot to like in this company’s most recent news, analysts say.
Read more »
| Bernd Struben
A leading analyst provides his outlook for Northern Stars beaten down shares.
Read more »
| Cameron England
Their WA project is progressing nicely.
Read more »
| Bernd Struben
Investors are bidding up the ASX 200 gold stock as the miner eyes a record year ahead.
Read more »
| Aaron Teboneras
A trading halt and planned raising have put Dateline shares back in focus.
Read more »
| Marc Van Dinther
A major boost in gold resources has lit a fire under the stock.
Read more »
View All
Get the latest from The Motley Fool Australia by following us on Google.
Sign Up for Take Stock
Investment news, stock ideas, and more, straight to your inbox.
Get Started Investing
You can do it. Learn about investing with our Investing Education hub.
Win at Retirement
Our latest articles and strategies for the post-work life you want.
Listen to Our Podcast
Hear our experts take on shares, the market & how to invest.
Join Our Premium Community
Join our flagship membership service, Share Advisor.
The Motley Fool stands behind our products and our membership-fee-back guarantee. If for any reason you are not 100% satisfied with your premium subscription, simply notify us within the first 30 days and you won’t pay a cent.
By taking up this offer, you will also be enrolled in our auto-renewal program, which is our way of making your ongoing subscription easier by ensuring uninterrupted service. Don’t worry, though – you’re not locked in, and can cancel your auto-renewal at any time before each ‘anniversary’ date without question or penalty.
To make the world Smarter, Happier, And Richer
Founded in 1993 by brothers Tom and David Gardner, The Motley Fool helps millions of people attain financial freedom through our website, podcasts, books, newspaper column, radio show and premium investing services. The Motley Fool launched its Australian presence in 2011, and since then has grown to reach over 1 million Australians.
Read more about us >
By clicking this button, you agree to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. We will use your email address only to keep you informed about updates to our website and about other products and services we think might interest you. You can unsubscribe at anytime. Please refer to our Financial Services Guide (FSG) for more information.
This Service provides only general, and not personalised financial advice, and has not taken your personal circumstances into account. The Motley Fool Australia operates under AFSL 400691. For more information please see our Financial Services Guide. Please remember that investments can go up and down. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns. The Motley Fool Australia does not guarantee the performance of, or returns on any investment.
We respectfully acknowledge the Traditional Custodians of the land where we live and work and pay our respects to all Elders, past and present, of all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander nations.
© 2010 – 2026 The Motley Fool Australia Pty Ltd. All rights reserved.
ACN: 146 988 052
Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL): 400691
The Motley Fool Australia, PO Box 104, Isle of Capri, Qld 4217
Contact Details:
Phone: (03) 8592 4841
Email: [email protected]
Our friendly customer service team will happily get back to you as soon as they can.
Notifications
Scott Phillips just released his 5 best stocks to buy right now and you could grab the names of these stocks instantly!