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These two factors are seen behind an ongoing outperformance of the Australian Dollar, which is the second-best G10 currency when screened over a one-week timeframe.
AUD withstood Tuesday’s bond rout, most likely due to Australia’s firm export base, which underpins its terms of trade (net exporters tend to be less exposed to bond market anxieties).
Australia’s terms of trade are meanwhile being shored up further by another jump in the gold price; gold is Australia’s fourth biggest hard export earner and a key foreign exchange earner for the country.
“High beta/developing market FX is (mostly) outperforming (KRW, ZAR, SEK, AUD) as equity markets steady while gold is trading at a new cycle high,” says Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank.
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The price of gold leapt to a new all-time high at $3578/oz on Wednesday, extending an uptrend that has been in place since November 2022.
“As investors return to their desks, they will note two major events have occurred in their absence. First, after consolidating for the last few months, the gold price has broken decisively higher and is on the rampage,” says Albert Edwards, a strategist at Société Générale.
According to Vivek Dhar, an economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the recent surge in gold has been attributed to expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut the Fed Funds rate in September.
“Rate cuts increase the appeal of gold relative to U.S.‑interest bearing assets,” he explains.
🎯 GBP/AUD year-ahead forecast: Consensus targets from our survey of over 30 investment bank projections. Request your copy.
Global inflation looks anchored higher, making bonds less attractive to investors, leaving them searching for alternative stores of value.
“Our forecast for gold to average $US3,500/oz in Q4 2025 is already looking too low. We flag upside risks to our forecast next quarter with ~$US3,650/oz now a real possibility,” says Dhar.
Above: The age of reflation is supporting a relentless gold rally.
Monetary policy is also providing helpful tailwinds with Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governor Michelle Bullock suggesting there is vanishing scope to cut interest rates further on account of a robust economy.
After the ABS reported the economy grew at a 0.6% quarterly clip in the second quarter, Bullock said the GDP result was a little stronger than the bank thought it would be.
Given this, it’s possible that “if it keeps going, that there may not be many interest rate declines left.”
With the odds of further rate cuts sliding, short-term Australian government bond yields are better supported than global peers, offering the AUD a help from the rates space.
“We shift our view to only one further rate cut of 25bps in November 2025; we also see a lower chance of another cut in February 2026,” says Wayne Gordon, startegist at UBS in Singapore, commenting in the wake of the GDP data and Bullock’s comments.
UBS strategy are buyers of the Australian Dollar on weakness, targeting 0.70 in AUD/USD over the next 12 months.
“Where does Aussie belong now? Our answer is higher,” says Deutsche Bank in a recent AUD forecast note, adding that the currency is still “trading at a discount relative to fundamentals.”
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