By LI JING | CHINA DAILY | Updated: 2026-04-18 07:11
China’s travel and tourism sector is rapidly closing the gap with the United States and could become the world’s largest within the next few years, as strong inbound demand and policy support fuel a sustained recovery in international travel.
The Chinese travel economy expanded 9.9 percent in 2025, more than twice the global average and far exceeding the 0.9 percent growth recorded in the US, according to new data released by the World Travel & Tourism Council and its research partner Chase Travel.
Despite China’s rapid growth, the United States still leads in overall scale. WTTC data show that the US’ travel and tourism sector contributed about $2.6 trillion to global GDP in 2025, compared with $1.8 trillion in China.
If current growth trends persist, China is on track to overtake the US and become the world’s largest tourism economy before the end of the decade, according to WTTC projections.
The outlook was highlighted in recent reporting by Bloomberg and echoes similar forecasts the industry body has made in previous years about China’s long-term tourism potential.
“While the US is shrinking, China is rising at a fast rate,” WTTC President and Chief Executive Officer Gloria Guevara told Bloomberg in an interview. “If this continues, in three to four years it will close in on the US.”
A surge in inbound tourism spending has been a key driver of China’s rebounding travel economy. Spending by foreign visitors in China rose more than 10 percent in 2025, according to WTTC data cited by Bloomberg.
That stands in sharp contrast to the US, where international visitor spending fell nearly 5 percent last year.
Meanwhile, foreign arrivals to the US have also declined. Data from the US International Trade Administration show about 68 million foreign tourists visited the US in 2025, down 5.5 percent from 2024, amid tighter immigration rules and rising geopolitical tensions.
In contrast, inbound travel to China continues to gain momentum. Data released by China’s National Immigration Administration show that 185 million cross-border trips were recorded in the first quarter of 2026, up 13.5 percent year-on-year, including 21.3 million foreign visitors, a 22.3 percent increase.
Visa-free travel policies have played a central role in the surge. Visa-free travelers accounted for 77.9 percent of all foreign arrivals in the first quarter, a 29.3 percent surge year-on-year, the administration said, underscoring the role of easier entry rules in boosting inbound flows.
China has continuously expanded visa-free entry programs and transit-visa exemptions, while also moving to stimulate tourist spending through reforms to its departure tax refund system.
Officials at the ongoing China International Consumer Products Expo in Hainan province have said that an upgraded policy, widely referred to as “departure tax refund 2.0”, is expected to roll out soon.
The upgrade will lower the minimum spending threshold for refunds, raise the cash refund limit and expand the number of participating stores, making shopping more convenient for overseas visitors.
Technology is also becoming an increasingly important driver of tourism growth.
At the Hainan expo, online travel platform Tongcheng Travel unveiled an artificial intelligence travel solution designed to guide visitors through the entire journey — from planning itineraries to booking flights, hotels and local experiences.
Experts say policy liberalization and improved services are key to sustaining the rebound.
Dai Bin, president of the China Tourism Academy, said recently to China Daily that China’s inbound tourism is accelerating largely due to continued institutional opening-up and travel facilitation measures.