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UNTA warned that the US decision to replace the USMCA’s automatic extension with annual reviews could increase uncertainty for Mexico’s agrifood sector, limiting long-term investment, financing and production planning for small and medium-sized producers. The concern comes as Mexico’s dependence on imported corn continues to grow amid declining domestic production, highlighting the importance of stable trade rules for food security, agricultural competitiveness and North American supply chains.
The National Union of Agricultural Workers (UNTA) warned that under the current conditions of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), Mexico’s agrifood sector faces a challenging outlook that continues to create uncertainty for small and medium-sized producers.
On July 1, Mexico, the United States and Canada formally launched the joint review of the USMCA. While Mexico and Canada endorsed a 16-year extension of the agreement through 2042, the United States announced it would not automatically renew the treaty and would instead conduct annual reviews over the next decade.
Against this backdrop, Álvaro López, Secretary General, UNTA, said the greatest risk for Mexico’s agricultural sector is the uncertainty created by annual evaluations, arguing that agriculture depends on clear rules, legal certainty and long-term investment to remain competitive.
López said the US decision to forgo the treaty’s automatic extension leaves the agrifood sector in limbo, particularly as Washington seeks to reduce its agricultural trade deficit while tightening rules of origin, trade regulations and phytosanitary measures.
“This scenario mainly affects small and medium-sized staple grain producers, who face greater difficulties planning production cycles, accessing financing and investing in infrastructure and modernization,” López said.
According to UNTA, this trade uncertainty coincides with a decline in Mexico’s corn production that has persisted since 2016, while domestic demand for food, livestock feed and industrial uses continues to rise, increasing the country’s reliance on imports.
Data cited by the organization show that between January and May 2026, Mexico imported 19.9Mt of grains and oilseeds, the second-highest volume ever recorded for the period. Corn imports reached 10.2Mt, up 8.4% year over year, with purchases valued at US$2.1 billion, a 2.6% increase in value.
The report found that the increase was driven primarily by yellow corn imports, although white corn imports also rose 6.1%, from 430,000t to 456,000t, with the United States remaining Mexico’s sole supplier.
US Department of Agriculture (USDA) projections suggest the trend will continue. Mexico is expected to import a record 26.5Mt of corn in the 2026/2027 marketing year and 27.0Mt in 2027/2028, while exports are projected to fall 33% year over year to 20,000t because of tighter domestic supplies and the appreciation of the peso.
UNTA also cited estimates from Mexico’s Agricultural and Fisheries Information Service (SIAP), which project corn production will decline 2% year over year to 24.3Mt in the 2026/2027 season as rising production costs and low domestic prices prompt growers in key producing states such as Jalisco, Michoacán and Guanajuato to reduce planted area or switch to sorghum.
The organization identified two main consequences of the annual USMCA review mechanism. The first is greater uncertainty for production planning and commercialization, as the lack of stable trade rules limits producers’ ability to develop medium- and long-term strategies.
The second relates to financing. UNTA said uncertainty reduces access to credit, discourages investment in machinery, irrigation systems and agricultural technologies, and complicates the negotiation of forward contracts with buyers.
The organization also argued that the new review mechanism perpetuates an uneven competitive environment between Mexican and US producers. While US farmers benefit from subsidies, advanced technology and lower logistics costs, Mexican producers face higher production costs that undermine their competitiveness.
UNTA said the future of Mexico’s agrifood sector will depend not only on the outcome of negotiations with the United States and Canada but also on the Mexican government’s ability to provide greater certainty, strengthen domestic production and reduce the country’s growing dependence on grain imports.
Concerns over the USMCA review process have also emerged in the United States. Democratic lawmakers, members of the House Agriculture Committee and US trade and agriculture officials sent a letter highlighting the importance of the Mexican and Canadian markets for US agricultural exports.
“The President is putting the USMCA at risk and, in doing so, pushing the farm economy to the brink. American businesses cannot thrive in a vacuum. Whether you’re a farmer growing crops or a trucker hauling cattle across the border for processing, stable relationships with our neighbors and stable markets are good for business. Chaos, tariffs, trade wars and tweets are not,” they stated.
The 20 lawmakers who signed the letter said the USMCA has expanded export opportunities, market stability and employment for US agriculture. Since 2020, agricultural exports to Mexico and Canada have increased by US$20 billion.
They warned that US farmers are experiencing their worst economic crisis since the 1980s, driven by rising production costs, low commodity prices and weakened export markets. In that context, they said Mexico and Canada have remained reliable destinations for US agricultural products, providing the certainty needed to sell products, invest and sustain employment.
The lawmakers argued that failing to renew the treaty jeopardizes one of the last sources of trade stability for US producers by putting continued access to their two largest agricultural export markets at risk.
The letter also stated that Congress will seek an explanation from the Trump administration for replacing the treaty’s 16-year extension with a 10-year period subject to annual reviews. It concluded by citing President Trump’s statement that “We don’t need anything from Canada. We don’t need anything from Mexico. American farmers and families disagree,” reads the document.
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