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Mexico’s air cargo market has reversed last year’s decline, supported by stronger cross-border trade with the United States, the resolution of a bilateral aviation dispute over cargo operations, and rising global demand for time-sensitive shipments. After cargo volumes contracted in 2025 amid economic uncertainty and weaker international trade, official data now points to renewed growth driven by international freight, particularly on US and Asian trade lanes.
According to the Federal Civil Aviation Agency (AFAC), total air cargo reached 616,193.8 metric tons in 1H26, a 4.7% year-over-year increase. International cargo remained the main growth driver, rising 7.1%, while domestic cargo increased 0.6%, reflecting stronger cross-border trade and improving international logistics activity.
The Mexico City metropolitan airport system led the recovery. Mexico City International Airport (AICM) increased cargo volumes by 1% during the first half, while Felipe Ángeles International Airport (AIFA) recorded 6.4% growth, reinforcing its role as the country’s primary cargo hub. In contrast, airports outside the World Cup logistics network continued to post declines, with Tijuana down 5.8%, Toluca falling 23.8%, Cancun declining 15.5%, and San Luis Potosi reporting a 10.7% decrease in cargo throughput.
The recovery follows a 2.4% year over year contraction in Mexico’s air cargo market to 1.23 million metric tons in 2025, according to AFAC. Seven of the country’s 10 busiest cargo airports recorded lower volumes, including Felipe Ángeles International Airport (AIFA), while Mexico City International Airport (AICM) was among the few major airports to post growth.
At the time, economists warned that declining cargo volumes reflected more than weaker freight demand. César Salazar, economist and researcher, Institute for Economic Research, said the slowdown could become structural. “As Mexico’s economic slowdown continues and global uncertainty is not easing—in fact, more risks are emerging—I believe a downward trend in air cargo could continue,” he said.
He also argued that weaker international cargo volumes reflected lower demand for intermediate goods moving through global value chains. “International trade is organized through value chains, so the decline in international cargo may also explain the lower movement of intermediate goods,” he said.
US-Mexico Air Freight Gains Momentum
Conditions changed significantly during 2026 as cross-border trade strengthened. According to the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), air freight between Mexico and the United States became the fastest-growing mode of transportation in May 2026. Total North American transborder air freight reached US$7.1 billion, a 53.6% increase compared to May 2025. Of that total, US$3.8 billion corresponded to bilateral trade between Mexico and the United States.
Overall freight trade between the two countries reached US$87.2 billion in May, up 17.1% year over year. Trucking remained the dominant mode of transportation, moving US$64.7 billion in freight, followed by rail at US$9.1 billion and maritime transport at US$6.8 billion. Nevertheless, air cargo recorded the fastest growth rate, highlighting rising demand for high-value and time-sensitive shipments supporting industries such as aerospace, electronics, and advanced manufacturing.
Another factor supporting Mexico’s cargo recovery was the resolution of the dispute between Mexico and the United States over cargo operations at Felipe Ángeles International Airport.
The governments of Mexico and the United States reached a bilateral agreement incorporating AIFA into the air transport framework governing cargo services, ending a disagreement that began after Mexico required dedicated cargo flights to relocate from Mexico City International Airport (AICM) in 2023.
The agreement, announced jointly by Mexico’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (SRE), the Ministry of Infrastructure, Communications and Transport (SICT), and the US Department of Transportation (DOT), formally recognizes AIFA under the bilateral aviation agreement and provides long-term regulatory certainty for cargo airlines operating between the two countries.
According to both governments, the updated framework guarantees transparent and equitable access to cargo infrastructure while expanding operational flexibility. Mexican authorities also indicated that additional cargo operations at AICM could become possible if future modernization projects increase airport capacity.
“With the modernization works and capacity increases, the possibility will open up for operations to increase for all airlines, including American ones,” SICT said.
The agreement also establishes a permanent bilateral working group between SICT and the DOT to oversee implementation, address regulatory issues, and receive industry feedback.
The resolution closes one of the most significant aviation disputes between the two countries in recent years. The United States had argued that Mexico’s decision to relocate cargo flights violated the 2015 bilateral air transport agreement and responded by suspending approvals for several Mexican airline routes while considering additional restrictions.
Despite these challenges, AIFA continues to consolidate its role as Mexico’s primary cargo hub. Between January and May 2026, the airport handled 167,262.9 metric tons of freight, an 11.3% increase year over year. AFAC reported that growth has been supported by expanding international trade lanes, including the Shanghai-AIFA route, where cargo volumes increased 42.3%, as well as higher traffic from Madrid, Frankfurt, and Memphis.
Mexico’s recovery is taking place alongside stronger global cargo demand. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), global air cargo demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs), increased 8.5% year over year in June 2026, while capacity expanded 4.4%.
“Air cargo demand grew 8.5% year on year in June. While North America was the strongest contributor to growth, demand in all regions was in positive territory compared to last year,” said Willie Walsh, IATA director general.
Walsh noted that demand growth exceeded capacity globally and outpaced world trade, supported by shipments of high-value technology products and urgent cargo. However, he warned that risks remain.
“While this all gives strong reasons for optimism in 2H26, risks remain—continuing hostilities in the Middle East and a renewed focus on US tariffs among them.”
North American airlines recorded the strongest regional performance, with cargo demand increasing 13.1% year over year and capacity expanding 6.2%. Asia-Pacific carriers posted 7.9% demand growth, European airlines reported a 6.9% increase, Middle Eastern carriers grew 5.6%, Latin American airlines increased 3.5%, and African carriers reported 4.7% growth.
Trade lanes linking Asia and North America continued to lead global expansion, with cargo volumes increasing 14.7% year over year for the fifth consecutive month. Europe-Asia traffic expanded 7.1%, while intra-Asia cargo increased 7.2%. In contrast, routes connected to the Middle East continued to reflect the impact of regional conflict.
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