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Mexico’s major commercial banks possess solid capitalization and risk profiles capable of navigating weak economic growth projected at 1.0% in 2026, according to S&P National Ratings. While elevated labor informality, USMCA trade uncertainty, and rising consumer non-performing loans present operational headwinds, credit expansion between 6.0% and 8.0% remains driven by consumer demand and credit card usage. The entry of licensed digital banks and expanding digital payment infrastructure are reshaping market dynamics, directly affecting commercial lenders, fintech platforms, retail merchants, and institutional investors.
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Total bank credit for major commercial banks is set to expand between 6.0% and 8.0% this year due to strong consumer demand, according to an analysis by S&P National Ratings. The rating agency’s Mexican division notes that this growth will allow the country’s G-7 banks to successfully navigate slow growth, external trade uncertainty, and persistent structural constraints. Overall, S&P assessed that the banking system faces a subdued macroeconomic environment, expecting GDP to grow 1.0% this year, followed by a gradual recovery of around 2.0% by 2027.
Addressing the macroeconomic environment, S&P National Ratings highlighted domestic and external factors restricting credit demand. “On the local environment side, we observe challenges such as high labor informality, weakness in the rule of law, and insecurity problems that continue to restrict economic growth,” S&P noted. The agency added that trade policy uncertainty surrounding the United States and the upcoming United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review without a definitive renewal has heightened uncertainty and slowed private investment. Despite these constraints, S&P projects total bank credit to expand between 6.0% and 8.0% this year, propelled primarily by the consumer segment.
The banking system’s resilience is supported by the G-7, a group of systemically important financial institutions designated by the National Banking and Securities Commission (CNBV) that includes BBVA México, Santander, Banorte, Citi, Banamex, Scotiabank, HSBC, and Inbursa. Regulatory data from the CNBV reveals that this G-7 group (excluding Citi) recorded a net credit portfolio of MX$6.2 trillion (US$365.739 billion), representing a 3.58% annual increase — its strongest real expansion since March 2025. Total net profits for the G-7 reached MX$121.715 billion (US$7.18 billion), marking a modest 1.7% real annual increase as lower interest rate cycles begin to weigh on interest margins.
Meanwhile, macroeconomic forecasts from private institutions align with S&P’s conservative economic outlook. According to the Citi Macroeconomic Expectations Survey, nine major financial institutions — including Scotiabank, Mifel, Santander, and Bank of America — lowered their 2026 GDP growth projections to below 1.0%. These downward revisions, led by Scotiabank’s 0.7% forecast and Mifel’s 0.8% estimate, reflect growing concerns over federal fiscal consolidation, weak public capital expenditure, and mounting trade uncertainties ahead of the upcoming USMCA review.
Solvency Metrics and Consumer Credit Dynamics
Financial analysts emphasize that maintaining adequate capitalization and solvency ratios remains crucial for banks navigating the economic slowdown. Roberto Soto, Senior Executive Director of Financial Institutions, HR Ratings, noted that key economic indicators will dictate banking performance, though solvent balance sheets ensure compliance with regulatory standards and individual risk profiles.
“Inflation has slowed in recent periods. The absence of an increase in inflation is positive,” noted Soto. “The performance of the general economy and how indicators trend will be highly relevant for institutions, both digital banks and the system as a whole,” he concluded.
Rising delinquency rates in consumer portfolios have drawn regulatory attention, though analysts dismiss systemic vulnerability. Vicente Gómez, Head of Ratings at Moody’s Local Mexico, attributed the increase in consumer non-performing loans (NPLs) to economic activity operating below potential, cumulative inflation from prior years, and reduced public transfers.
However, Gómez discarded the existence of systemic distress. “We are not seeing levels that lead us to intuit that there is something difficult for the banking system that it cannot mitigate,” Gómez indicated.
Addressing debt sustainability, Víctor Manuel Herrera, President of the National Committee of Economic Studies at the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF), noted that while the banking sector is healthy overall, lenders may begin tightening credit supply — particularly for credit cards—to stabilize rising delinquency.
Data from Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) shows that commercial bank credit card balances reached MX$709.267 billion (US$41.84 billion)in June, growing at an 8.2% annual real rate and outpacing the broader consumer credit portfolio, which expanded 7.6% over the same period. Marcela Sánchez, Director of Banks at Fitch Ratings, observed that consumer lending is serving as the primary growth engine for commercial banks in 2026, supported by formal job creation and minimum wage increases, even as the consumer NPL index rose to 3.55% in June.
Digital Banking Expansion
The entry of seven fully licensed digital banks into the financial system is expected to accelerate financial inclusion across Mexico. Gómez observed that digital-only entrants face the structural challenge of expanding credit penetration to unbanked populations rather than solely competing for existing bank clients. Furthermore, operating under a full banking license entails higher compliance costs and reserve requirements.
“From our local perspective, it is a more expensive license,” Gómez noted. He added that the entry of previously non-regulated financial entities establishes an equilibrium that the market required. For its part, S&P National Ratings argued that technological adoption will allow established commercial banks to expand commercial reach, reduce operational costs, and strengthen customer experience. 
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